Forecast recommends government bonds and Japanese equities

The new year is likely, as I said last week, bringing a sharp rise in the USD. With the end of the year-end liquidity to the markets this deflationary effect beyond any further. The very poor performance of U.S. markets at 31 December is not a good omen. The stock markets will yield considerably driven USD initially, later in the year by a deteriorating economy. The public support will decline, the countries need to save. In the U.S., also spoke of the political cycle for weaker markets. For a new U.S. president, it is important to get a good start () does not contribute to the same as a lame duck and a good finish to be re-elected. The 2nd Year of tenure is a Durchhänger. Here you will not use up their ammunition, which can be later to good use. The Midterm-Year is not least because a particularly weak year for equities. Dow Jones in the election cycle:

Government bonds (mainly German and U.S. bonds) will be like 2008 to be one of the bestlaufenden asset classes, perhaps the only positive performer. (yes, that’s a bold prediction, and I will just continue as long as the trend is true.) While Mark Faber thinks that Japanese stocks would be the “most contrarian play for 2010, but I got the impression that government bonds are still more hated. (An added very risky trade idea: U.S. Treasury ungehedged, such as the iShares ETF (ISIN IE00B1FZS798) might, as in the autumn 08, both from a stronger U.S. dollar as well as by stronger U.S. bonds to benefit)

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